What's that they say about pride and falls?

The Australian Open tennis championship is coming to an end, and to be quite honest, I'm not sorry. The routine of waking in the middle of the night for two or three hours is taking it's toll. It wouldn't be quite so bad if once I'd finished at say 4.00, I could go straight off to sleep for a couple of hours before the 6.15 alarm call, but I find that when I close the laptop down and lay my head on the pillow, it is impossible to empty my mind of what has just played out on the tennis court and any trades that took place. Well, that's usually what's going through my mind, although admittedly thoughts do tend to wander down an entirely different path if Maria Sharapova or Ana Ivanovic have been playing.

This is probably a good time to take stock though and review my progress, or even ask myself if indeed there has been any progress. In monetary terms, then the tournament has not been a success. Too many one sided matches in which one player's price has steamed in to never reverse, trades entered in promising positions merely to see the swing upon which profit is dependent fail to materialise, and my missing the successful trades through the indubitable law of the sod courtesy of getting some sleep at least. All these things have conspired against me/us and led to a distinct lack of green. Not that it would amount to much anyway, based on the minimal stakes I'm currently using.

Strangely, in view of all this, I do genuinely feel that I have made some steps forward. I was particularly pleased with myself last night in the Azarenka match. I successfully resisted the temptation to get involved when on a couple of occasions in the first set, it looked a good time to enter the market. But the price wasn't quite right. It wasn't a million miles away, but one thing my Mentor has instilled into me is the importance of resolve and discipline to wait for the correct entry point. By doing so I entered at a really good point, minimising as much as possible the potential downside and of course maximising the potential upside. As it happens, the required swing for profit didn't materialise - although it really should have done (Clijsters hang your head in shame!) - but my entry meant that the loss I took was negligible. Now my Mentor wasn't actually in the Chat Room at this time - I was operating without his instruction (although there were plenty of like-minded folk around), so I felt genuinely proud at having read the markets correctly, entered at the right time, and exited quickly with minimal harm done, having put myself in a position that a big profit was a mere hair's breadth away. I tell you, losing had never felt so good.

My bubble of pride was soon pricked though, as it was pointed out to me that with the entry I'd made, I could actually have allowed the trade to run a little longer and given it a greater chance of paying dividends. The extra risk involved would have added perhaps a tick or two onto the loss figure (which was only three ticks anyway, once the loss had been hedged). As it happens, it made no difference as events in the game dictated that the extended trade would still have been a loser, but it was an important point to learn. I had got so absorbed by trying to the right thing, I missed a potential opportunity that other, better traders than I would have spotted and tried to exploit.

In summary then, my feel for the tennis markets is improving and compared to where I was at at the turn of the year, I'm happy where I'm at right now. Having said that, I'm aware that I'm very much closer to the white belt end of the competency scale than the black. Perhaps a yellow. Others who know more than I may disagree and suggest that I'm not so much white as albino. And who would I be to argue?


Today's Betting

Chasemaster's rather tasty winner (Morgan Be - Newcastle - 10/1) was welcome, but ultimately only enough to cover the losses made elsewhere. I said last night that I'm finding the racing so very frustrating just at the moment, and today was no better in this respect. Ten other losers, which is fine. You know, it happens. But recently, the number of horses I've backed that are simply never put in the race, are never put in a place to at least be competitive, is driving me nuts. Such a high proportion of them are held out the back, way off the pace, their jockeys showing no urgency. Perhaps I don't know what I'm talking about. Perhaps there are very good reasons why they are ridden like this and it is in fact maximising these particular horses' chance of being successful, but it sure doesn't feel that way.

Northern Monkey: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 1pt, +0.987pts.

Thursday 26th January: Staked £155, +£4.
Month to date: Staked £6,435, +£209.99, roi 3.26%.


Nothing to get up for tonight. Bliss.