Trading

I guess I'd better wish everybody a Happy New Year! And yes, any cycling bin men out there, that includes you lot too. We shall enjoy a 24 hour rapprochement. A ceasefire. Perhaps we'll lay down our arms, cautiously walk towards each other to meet, shake hands, exchange gifts of cigarettes and brandy before breaking into an impromptu game of football on no-man's land. We will be joined by that which we have in common - our very humanity - before sadly, hostilities are renewed tomorrow.

And believe me, when they do....


Anyway, trading. I thought I'd start with giving a bit of a run down on my thoughts on trading before I do my betting services because, whisper it quietly, I actually think the potential for long term gain is much stronger trading than gambling. I know, I know, that's not what you gamblers out there wanted to hear and believe me, twelve months ago I never envisaged that I would think this way myself. But bear with me. Let me explain.

What is the biggest problem for profitable gamblers? Answer: getting your bets on. It is a fact. Yes, we can all utilise pseudo accounts, have friends and families open new bank accounts, etc, etc. But the fact remains, this represents the biggest challenge that we as gamblers have to overcome.

Now consider this. On an "average" ATP/WTA tennis match, getting as much as £1k or more into the market to lay a player at somewhere between 1.10 and 1.80 (and usually higher if that is what you want to do) is never a problem. You are in a different world to the one in which you want to back a 20/1 shot in the 2.10 at Cheltenham, ask for just £10 each way, and are offered £9.39 instead (not going to mention any names here...Paddy Power. Ooops!).

I realised last year that if I wanted to make an ongoing income from gambling, I would have to look at different angles and strategies. I knew that long term, unless I cut down on the number of bets I was having - and therefore services I was following, particulary in horse racing - I was living on borrowed time. I needed to extend the lifetime of my bookmaker accounts as much as I possibly could, and the way to do that was to use them less and place bets to lower staking levels. Trouble with that though, is that it would obviously reduce my earning potential; I needed a different outlet, and from reading the paragraph above, you can see why I saw trading as a viable option.

Now all this is all well and good, but I knew nothing of trading, or how to go about it, nor which sports I should concentrate on. And then I found my master. A chap who from the first contact I had, I could see that he would be able to help me, teach me, and provide ongoing guidance. In short, just what was needed. (For anyone interested, google "Betfair Guru"). I will tell you more about him and what I've learnt so far at a later date, but naturally I don't want to detail any of his strategies and methods. That wouldn't be fair. Suffice to say, the aim is to minimise risk and maximise the risk:return ratio in our favour. That's a philosophy that struck a chord and appealed to my conservative outlook.


There are however, challenges to face.

The first part of the year sees the tennis being played in Australasia/Asia. Time differences mean that games are played overnight, our time, and from Tuesday, I return to work.

I can try to ensure that I maximise the amount of time I can trade, take measures that will allow me to both trade and perform at work, but it is inevitable that I will miss some moves that would provide the profits. The nature of the trading strategies that I will be utilising is such that it is usual to go through a sequence of four or five small losing trades (say 5-7 ticks) before hitting the move we're looking for and banking 50-80 ticks. We can guess what the Law of Sod is going to say about that and how easy it will be for it to manipulate my situation so that I miss out on a move or two!

But assuming that I can look Sod's Law in the face and stare it down, and ultimately gain a measure of ongoing success, then the issue of the Betfair PC raises it's head. Dealing with the Betfair PC though, represents something of a bridge that can be crossed as and when appropriate. To be honest, getting as far as facing that problem remains something of an ambition at this stage. Mind you, I remember thinking along similar lines when starting out on the gambling - I guess I've now achieved the "ambition" of having the bookmakers reluctant to take my bets. Whoppee-bleedin'-doo!!!

And talking of that lot, I bet Paddy Power doesn't stop at red lights when he's on his bicycle either...