Just a very quick round up tonight as I plan to go get some sleep before waking at 2.00 for a tennis match that could provide some decent trading opportunities.
Today has been one of those days that make me think that a lot of the time, I really don't enjoy betting on horses. I've got into the habit of recording the racing and watching it after I've put the kids to bed, so I get to see my selections run before I know what the results are. Now today has not been a disastrous day by any stretch, but the majority of the horses today ran absolute stinkers. I find that incredibly frustrating.
An honourable mention to Winning Racing Tips though which did provide a winner (Sainglend - Hereford - 9/2), although there were two further bets that provided no returns. The one On The Nose selection also ran creditably to place, but the others...
No luck for The Market Examiner (0/3), Chasemaster (0/2), or Northern Monkey (0/1).
Northern Monkey: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, +0.437pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.7pts, +0.52pts.
Wednesday 25th January: Staked £207, -£45.05.
Month to date: Staked £6,280, +£205.99, roi 3.28%.
Bit grumpy tonight. Can you tell?
Hey Rowan
ReplyDeleteThe points totals don't look right for WRT!
Sorry if I'm reading your figures incorrectly and I hope that my comment does not make you grumpier.
regards
Mark
Hi Mark. Just checked, mate - all seems ok.
ReplyDeleteTwo losing bets that lost £66 and a winner that gave £97.20 profit. That's +£31.20 divided by £60/point = +0.52pts.
Don't worry - it was a combination of a number of horses running dreadfully and the prospect of setting the alarm for 1.45 this morning that was making me grumpy. :)
Ha I see now, sorry, I had not read your post properly and I did not realise WRT had put up three selections mate. (Note To Self - Read something correctly before opening your big trap LOL)
ReplyDeleteThanks for your patience mate.
Mark
Hi Rowan/TPI,
ReplyDeleteI was a reader of your old blog but removed it from Google Reader when you announced you were giving up blogging. I'm not sure how it has taken me until now to realise you've started again.
It did mean however that I got a chance to read your entire blog in one go, almost every word of all 18 posts. I think enjoyed "Football. Bloody Hell!" and "Let Down." the most, but the standard of blogging is admirable. I was sad to see your last blog end, like JP's blog it was interesting to see how putting your financial fate in others' hands worked out but I completely understand your reasoning for doing so.
Enough eulogising. Having not signed up to the Betfair Guru I'm not really in a position to comment on the service provided but I do have a question/ general statement about it. You've mentioned several times that you and the BFG are looking for situations where you'll perhaps lose a little often and make a lot occasionally in tightly contested matches. This leads me to assume then that the majority of your action is in either the first set or the second set when a big favourite is behind. The reason for that being that this is when you're likely to have the smallest odds movements per point relative to the potential swing. It is also however when the market is at its tightest (other than when a player becomes a big favourite) and so I find it hard to imagine that as a group you are regularly able to get matched at a couple of ticks better than your price point. I guess therefore my question is – “Do you find it hard to get your entry position matched?”. Ofcourse I could be completely misinterpreting what you’ve written and you try get involved when it is tight later on and the price fluctuations are huge. It could just be our definitions of ‘small’ are different!
Anyway this comment is longer than my last blog post so I’ll wrap it up there. I’ve added a link to your blog on mine, feel free to check mine out at http://itonlymatterswhentheresmoneyonit.blogspot.com and the best of luck with your venture into tennis trading.
Hi SJ,
ReplyDeleteYou're going to embarrass me if you carry on like that. :)
You're right in that most of the action on the tennis takes place during the first set, but entering a trade is not dependent on a favourite going behind. It's a little difficult to explain without reveaaling details of the strategies employed, and of course I have promised that I would not do that on here, for obvious reasons. What I would say is that getting matched on an entry point is not an issue (providing the liquidity is there, naturally). If you can't get the price suitable for entry, then no trade is entered into, it's as simple as that. Funnily enough, I'm about to blog a little more on this very subject tonight.
There are circumstances that might arise later in the match that provide opportunities too, and you're right, the natural volatility that is a part of the latter stages of a match means that there is big potential to catch a large upswing from a low lay, but the aim is really the same in terms of risk:reward when entering at any stage of the match, first set or last.
What do I mean by a small loss? Five to seven ticks. The bigger wins = 40+ ticks, although sometimes of course it may be more appropriate to green up before that level is reached. The general aim though is to allow the winning trades to continue as long as possible to maximise the green and avoid the trap of continually pulling up short. If that happened of course, the smaller and more frequent losses would add up to more than the profits, and even my retarded maths ability allows me to see that that wouldn't be much cop!
I'll stick up a link to your blog. Great name!
Rowan