Wednesday, 7 March 2012

The last time yours truly picked a winner.

I mentioned last week that Cheltenham antepost selections were coming through thick and fast, and the flow is showing no immediate signs of slowing. On Monday it was Northern Monkey with coverage of some of the handicaps, yesterday 4PA with their advice for the Triumph Hurdle, and today On The Nose waded in with tips in a couple of races. I have got to admit, I'm beginning to get a little twitchy; I daren't add up how much I have staked now over the four days, and let's face it, the racing is rather competitive and there is obvious potential for disaster. Of course there is also the potential for magnificence. No doubt when all the battles have been fought and the dust has settled, returns will lie somewhere on the scale between the two extremes.

Anyway, there's no point in worrying. The money is down. And it is all rather exciting, isn't it?

Cheltenham. I went once, back in 1996. Gold Cup day it was. I remember catching the train from Manchester Piccadilly with my best mate and his Dad (who was essentially funding the two of us, broke students that we were), discussing the form whilst reading the 'Racing Post'. I was absolutely convinced, and had been for some time, that the hot favourite for the big race, One Man, wasn't going to win. My theory was founded in the methods espoused by Nick Mordin in his book, 'Betting For a Living', a book that I spent much time reading and re-reading. In fact, if I'd spent half as much time reading 'Street On Torts' as I did Mordin's tome, I'd have found my end of year law examinations more straightforward than I did!

Mordin's basic theory was that when looking at a horse's form, certain patterns can often be identified which might give the analyst an insight into what sort of run can be expected. Nothing ground-breaking really, although I seem to remember thinking it was at the time. Anyway, looking at One Man's form, it seemed obvious to me that a 3m2f trip on an undulating track would see it beaten. Somehow, during that train journey, I managed to convince my companions of this hypothesis and between us we settled on Imperial Call as the probable winner of the big race.

The rest, as they say, is history. I seem to remember getting 9/2 against Imperial Call. One Man finished a distant six of seven. This quote from the following day's 'Independent':

Gordon Richards, One Man's trainer, was so perplexed that he sent his grey for a dope test. "The thing is that he went out like a light," Richards said. "It wasn't that he had no stamina because he didn't even get three miles today. The horse just hasn't given a true run and I think there must be something to blame."

Gordon. You should have asked me. I knew, you see. I knew.

Today's Betting

A nice profit today, primarily thanks to Football Elite who have had a good midweek; today's bet a winner to add to the one they picked yesterday.

Quiet on the horses. Winning Racing Tips' only selection finished placed (Sutton Storm - Fontwell - 14/1) to provide a small return. No joy for Chasemaster (0/1) or The Market Examiner (0/1).

The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.4pts, +0.36pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.
Football Elite: Staked 1pt, +1.27pts.

Month to Date

Northern Monkey: Staked 3pts, -2.55pts, roi -85%
4PA: Staked 2.5pts, -2.5pts, roi -100%
Chasemaster: Staked 0.75pts, -0.45pts, roi -60%
WRT: Staked 3.1pts, +1.393pts, roi 44.95%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 1.5pts, -0.692pts, roi -46.16%
On The Nose:
The Market Examiner: Staked 9.5pts, -0.5pts, roi -5.26%

TFA 7/22: Staked 7pts, +4.71pts, roi 67.28%
Skeeve: Staked 21pts, -8.48pts, roi -40.38%
Football Elite: Staked 3pts, +1.707pts, roi 56.91%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.15pts, -0.15pts, roi -100%
On The Oche: Staked 1pt, -1pt, roi -100%
Strike Zone (h): Staked 5pts, -2.103pts, -42.06%

Now, I've not mentioned the trading for a little while and there is a simple reason for that. I haven't done any. Not through not wanting to, just that the times of matches hasn't been suitable. From today though, there's a tournament starting which will have matches starting early evening our time, and I want to get involved as much as possible. This may well lead to the posts on the blog amounting to not much more than updates on how the betting is going as I simply won't have the time to stick much else up. Having said that, I'm off work for Cheltenham next week, and it would be rude not to stick some thoughts up on what's going on there. We'll see how it pans out.

1 comment:

  1. with that sort of record you ought to start a tipping service ;)